Category: Talent & Market Insights

The Labor Department released its June jobs report with better than expected job growth and signs that point to increasing labor force participation. Here’s what we know:

The numbers

222,000: The U.S. economy added 222,000 jobs in June
4.4%: The unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent
2.5%: Wages went up 2.5 percent over the past year

The good

The 222,000 jobs added is good news. According to the Wall Street Journal, it’s the largest increase since February, and it’s even larger than economists were expecting. This helps quash some of the fears about slowing job growth that we talked about after the May jobs report.

Additionally, even though an increase in the unemployment rate may not seem positive, it’s a sign that more people are entering the job market. Marketwatch reports that’s typical for the month of June, as the flood of new college grads enter the job market, though modest gains in labor force participation indicate that some workers sidelined during the recession have gained the confidence to re-enter the job market.

The bad

The 2.5 percent wage increase is a familiar number for economists. Bloomberg reports that while hiring has accelerated throughout the recovery from the Great Recession, wage gains have remained modest. Economists had expected wages to increase as the unemployment rate fell. So far, that hasn’t happened.

The unknown

The biggest unknown is why wage gains continue to disappoint. The New York Times reports it may be a sign that the economy is not yet nearing full employment like some had predicted and still has room to grow. Bloomberg reports that the growing labor force participation could be keeping wages down, but other economists point to the retirement of high-earning Baby Boomers who are being replaced by the lower-earning millennial workforce. Marketwatch also points to the possibility of decreased productivity and increased global competition.

Read our analysis of the July report here.

The Labor Department released its May jobs report with the lowest unemployment rate in 16 years but lower than expected job growth. Here’s what we know:

The numbers
138,000: The economy added 138,000 jobs in May
4.3%: The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%
2.5%: Wages went up 2.5% over the last year

The good

The unemployment rate is the highlight of the May report. The Wall Street Journal reports that this is the lowest level since 2001. Broader measures of unemployment and underemployment are also down, and it’s also down from the April jobs report.

The New York Times reports the numbers show we’re nearing full employment, but depending on who you are, that may or may not be a good thing.

The bad

Despite the banner unemployment headline, economists say this report sends some mixed signals about the economy. First, the Wall Street Journal reports the 138,000 jobs added was actually lower than economists expected, and Bloomberg reports the past three months show the slowest job growth since 2012.

Additionally, part of the reason for the decreasing unemployment rate is a shrinking labor force. The New York Times points out that the labor-force participation rate dropped this month to 62.7%, which indicates that workers sidelined during the recession are not rejoining the labor force despite years of job growth and a low unemployment rate.

The 2.5% wage gain has been steady since late 2015, according to the Wall Street Journal. Economists had predicted that would eventually start to increase with the falling unemployment rate, but so far, that hasn’t happened.

The unknown

Economists are debating what exactly these mixed signals mean when looked at as a whole picture. Marketwatch reports that the low unemployment rate will be enough for the Federal Reserve Bank to increase interest rates. However, they also show the report caused the dollar to weaken and the stock market gains were limited.

Read our analysis of the June jobs report here.

The Labor Department released its April jobs report with higher than expected job growth, showing a rebound after a slow March. Here’s what we know:
The numbers
211,000: The economy added 211,000 jobs
4.4%: The jobless rate fell to 4.4%
2.5%: Wages went up 2.5% over the past 12 months
The good
There’s a lot of good in this jobs report. The 211,000 jobs added is more than economists expected according to Marketwatch, and it’s more than double the growth in the March report.
Additionally, the 4.4% unemployment rate is the lowest in nearly a decade. According to the Wall Street Journal, the last time the unemployment rate was 4.4% was May 2007. The last time it was lower was May 2001. The number suggests the economy may be near full employment.
The bad
While not necessarily bad, one of the weaker points in the report is the 2.5% wage increase. According to the New York Times, it’s a sign that the economy hasn’t actually reached full employment. However, Bloomberg reports wage gains should be the next step in the continued recovery from the recession, citing the tightening labor market.
The unknown
The biggest questions out of the April jobs report concern what exactly the results mean for other parts of the government. Marketwatch reports the job growth keeps the Fed on track to raise interest rates again soon.
The April report also clears up some questions after March’s surprisingly low job report, according to Marketwatch. Their analysts say April’s strong numbers show March was likely an anomaly caused by bad weather.
Read our analysis of the May jobs report.

Dissecting the March Jobs Report

The Labor Department released its March jobs report with lower than expected job-growth numbers. Economists are debating what those numbers mean. Here’s what we know.
The numbers
98,000: The economy added 98,000 jobs
4.5 percent: The jobless rate fell to 4.5 percent
2.7 percent: Wages went up 2.7 percent over the last year
The good
The 4.5 percent unemployment rate is the lowest since 2007, according to the New York Times. The Wall Street Journal calls it a signal that the economy is at or nearing full employment, and Bloomberg calls it a “signal of underlying strength.”
Additionally, The Wall Street Journal reports the 2.7 percent wage increase shows wages are rising faster now than at the start of the recovery from the Great Recession – a sign the labor market is tightening.
The bad
The economy added far fewer jobs than economists expected at just 98,000. That’s less than half the number of jobs added in January or February. Additionally, the Labor Department revised its numbers from January and February, indicating employers added fewer jobs than the department estimated a few weeks ago.
Retail was one of the worst performing sectors in the economy, losing nearly 30,000 jobs in March after losing about 31,000 in February.
The unknown
Economists are still debating the reason behind the slowed job growth. The New York Times reports some blame the numbers on a cold and snowy March in some parts of the country after a nicer than expected January and February. However, The Atlantic points out that some of the biggest losses were in retail, which wouldn’t be explained by weather.
This puts more pressure April jobs report. You can read our analysis of the April report here.