The U.S. economy gained 226,000 jobs in April. The numbers fell far below economist expectations, even as vaccinations increase, and COVID-19 cases decrease across the country. The report comes one year after the economy shed 20.5 million jobs in April 2020, at the start of the pandemic. The unemployment rate rose to 6.1%. Year-over-year wage growth was at .3%.

The Numbers

+266,000: Employers added 266,000 jobs to the U.S. economy in April.

6.1%: The unemployment rate rose to 6.1%

.3%: Wages rose just .3% over the past year.

The Good

April’s jobs report was largely disappointing. As the New York Times reports, economists had expected job growth as high as one million. However, there are a few bright points. leisure and hospitality, the sector hit hardest by the pandemic, led job growth with 331,000 new jobs. Additionally, labor force participation increased to 61.7% in April, marking the second straight month of growth, and suggesting that more Americans are reentering the workforce.

The Bad

Despite COVID-19 numbers trending positively, the Wall Street Journal reports that many employers are still cautious about ramping up hiring. Additionally, sectors that grew during the pandemic saw some job losses in April, including temporary work and transportation and warehousing. Manufacturing shed 18,000 jobs due to supply chain issues in the auto industry.

Additionally, year-over-year wage growth fell sharply in April, however these numbers come exactly one year after more than 20 million jobs were lost. At that point, wage growth increased drastically, as higher wage workers were more likely to retain their jobs, while lower wage workers were more likely to experience layoffs. That shift caused the average wage to rise, and the trend will impact wage growth numbers for months to come.

The Unknown

Economists disagree on the cause of April’s disappointing report. According to NBC, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen ascribes the low numbers to the volatility of a recovering economy. Others have argued that enhanced unemployment benefits may be keeping some people at home, while yet another group argues those benefits have been necessary to keeping food on the table for many families. The New York Times reports a more complicated story, particularly in the restaurant industry, as some workers look to change careers for more stable industries, or express health and safety concerns.

The U.S. economy gained 916,000 jobs in March. The numbers beat economist expectations and show the fastest job growth since the summer of 2020. However, economists caution that there are still challenges ahead. The unemployment rate fell to 6.0%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 4.2%.

The Numbers

916,000: The U.S. economy added 916,000 jobs in March.

6%: The unemployment rate fell to 6%.

4.2%: Wages grew 4.2% over the past year.

The Good

The New York Times reports that March’s jobs report is the most optimistic report since the pandemic began. The 916,000 jobs added to the economy beat the expectations of most economists, though as we noted in our February analysis, some economists thought job growth could be as high as one million. Many of the jobs added came in leisure and hospitality, the sector hit hardest by pandemic job losses.

Economists say they expect growth to continue because of the expanded availability of vaccines, with more than 2 million Americans receiving shots each day. The reopening of schools has also allowed more women to reenter the workforce.

The Bad

Despite the good news in March’s report, as the Wall Street Journal reports, there are still 8.4 million fewer jobs than before the pandemic began, and even if growth continues at this rate, it will take the larger part of the year to make up that ground.

The Unknown

MarketWatch reports that economists have a lot of optimism for the coming months, but there are a few factors that could impact the economic recovery. The first is the speed of vaccinations. As more Americans are vaccinated, the economy can recover more quickly. On the other side, many stats are seeing rising numbers of coronavirus cases, which has slowed reopening plans in some areas. If those numbers do not decrease, it could dampen the recovery.

The U.S. economy gained 379,000 jobs in February. The numbers beat economist expectations, suggesting that the recovery is gaining steam. However, economists caution that there are still challenges ahead. The unemployment rate fell to 6.2%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 5.3%.

The Numbers

379,000: The U.S. economy gained 379,000 jobs in February.

6.2%: The unemployment rate fell to 6.2%

5.3%: Wages rose 5.3% over the past year.

The Good

The addition of 379,000 jobs to the economy in February suggests that the recovery is picking up steam, the Wall Street Journal reports. Economists had predicted just 210,000 new jobs.

The majority of the job gains happened in the leisure and hospitality sector, which has been the hardest hit by the pandemic. Experts say decreasing coronavirus cases, increasing vaccinations, and the stimulus passed in December likely all contributed to the uptick as consumers are gaining confidence.

The Bad

While there was plenty of good news in February’s report, there is still a long way to go. The U.S. still has 9.5 million fewer jobs than when the pandemic began. Additionally, some sectors, like construction, shed jobs. Though experts say that is likely temporary and related to winter weather conditions.

While the unemployment rate decreased, there was no improvement in the racial disparity in unemployment. As the AP reports, the unemployment rate for white workers fell from 5.7% to 5.6%, but the unemployment rate for Black workers actually rose from 9.2% in January to 9.9% in February. The unemployment rate for Hispanic workers fell from 8.6% to 8.5%.

The Unknown

Economists say this could be the start of a stretch of strong hiring numbers that lasts through the spring. Bloomberg reports that March could potentially see more than a million new jobs, as long as there is not an increase in coronavirus cases. The New York Times also reports that employers see this as the start of a hiring surge.

However, there are a few factors that could impact these predictions. Economists predict that the $1.9 trillion stimulus will have a positive effect, but rising coronavirus cases or a slowdown in school reopening could impact job growth negatively. Ultimately, workers need to both feel safe returning to the workplace and have the childcare options to do so to continue strong economic growth.

The U.S. economy gained 49,000 jobs in January. The modest growth follows December’s drop in employment, and suggests growth remains sluggish. The economy is still more than nine million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 5.4%.

The Numbers

49,000: The U.S. economy added 49,000 jobs in 2021

6.3%: The unemployment rate fell to 6.3%.

5.4%: Wages rose 5.4% over the past year.

The Good

Though the numbers in January’s jobs report reveal little to celebrate, the addition of 49,000 jobs averts a second straight month of losses, as the New York Times reports some economists expected. The most significant gains were made in the business and professional services sector, with more modest gains in financial services.

The Bad

As the Washington Post reports, the jobs report reveals that the economy finished 2020 even weaker than originally indicated. November’s jobs gains were adjusted down 72,000 from the original estimates, and revised estimates now show a decrease of 227,000 jobs in December, rather than the 140,000 initially reported.

Some of the most significant losses came in leisure and hospitality as restaurants continued to struggle. The retail sector also shed jobs after boosted hiring during the holiday season. Even transportation and warehousing, which had previously remained a bright spot, reported a loss of nearly 28,000 jobs.

Though the decrease in the unemployment rate may initially seem like good news, the Wall Street Journal reports that the drop is largely because many workers dropped out of the labor force and were no longer actively looking for jobs.

The Unknown

January’s jobs report comes as coronavirus vaccinations continue around the country and as congress moves forward with President Biden’s $1.9 trillion aid package. Economists will be watching the impact of the additional federal aid and the rising number of vaccinated Americans.

The U.S. economy shed 140,000 jobs in December. This is the first monthly decrease in employment numbers since the recovery began. In 2020, the economy lost more than 9 million jobs. The unemployment rate remained at 6.7%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 5.1%.

The Numbers

-140,000: The U.S. economy shed 140,000 jobs in December.

6.7%: The unemployment rate remained at 6.7%.

5.1%: Wages rose 5.1% over the past year.

The Good

In the jobs report with the first losses in seven months, you have to look closely to see any good news. As Bloomberg reports, the job losses are in specific sectors, with other areas of the economy holding up. There were job gains in retail, professional and business services, construction and manufacturing, despite significant losses in other sectors.

CNBC reports the other bright spot is that despite an increase in temporary layoffs, permanent layoffs decreased in December.

The Bad

December’s jobs report indicates that the recovery isn’t just slowing down or stalling, its going in reverse, as the New York Times reports. The leisure and hospitality sector saw the biggest decrease with restaurants and bars cutting 372,000 jobs in December and hotels cutting 24,000 more. Education also saw a smaller decrease with private schools and colleges cutting 60,000 jobs.

Additionally, the losses had the greatest impact on women, and specifically women of color. As CNN reports, women accounted for all of the job losses in December, with 156,000, while men gained 16,000. (These numbers are cumulative, indicating while individual men lost jobs in December, those were offset by gains in men’s employment.) Women have already been disproportionally impacted by pandemic related job losses, with the unemployment rate for Latinas at 9.1%, Black women at 8.4% and white women at 5.7 percent.

The Unknown

Starting a new year, the U.S. economy faces a variety of factors that could impact the recovery. First is the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Surging cases have been blamed for December’s job losses, and new strains recently identified in the UK have shown to be even more contagious.

Additionally, as the Wall Street Journal reports, these job losses come just as the most recent $900 billion coronavirus aid package kicks in, and president-elect Joe Biden has indicated another package could be on the way in early 2021.

U.S. employers added 245,000 jobs in November. This was a slowdown from the previous month, and lower than economists expected. Despite the growth, the jobs numbers show a significant slowdown in the recovery. The unemployment rate fell to 6.7%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 4.4%.

The Numbers

245,000: The U.S. economy added 245,000 jobs in November.

6.7%: The unemployment rate fell to 6.7%.

4.4%: Wages rose 4.4% over the past year.

The Good

If we were looking at the numbers for November 2019, the 245,000 jobs added to the economy and the 0.2% drop in the unemployment rate would look like good news. However, in 2020, those numbers tell the opposite story. There are few bright spots in the November jobs report. The Wall Street Journal reports the most significant jobs growth happened in transportation and warehousing, likely related to holiday hiring for ecommerce roles.

The Bad

November’s job growth is by far the weakest since the recovery started this spring. The numbers fell below economist expectations, and as the Washington Post reports, the retail sector shed 35,000 jobs. Bars, restaurants and other food-service businesses shed 17,000. This comes as coronavirus cases have been surging across the U.S., causing some jurisdictions to implement new restrictions, including closing indoor dining. The increase in cases may also be pushing some Americans to complete holiday shopping online, rather than inside retail stores.

Additionally, the decrease in the unemployment rate occurred mostly because 400,000 people dropped out of the workforce, as NPR reports. The economy is still 9.8 million jobs behind pre-pandemic levels.

The Unknown

As 2020 draws to a close, there are still several unanswered questions. Congress is still negotiating a relief bill. Two runoff elections in Georgia will determine control of congress in 2021, which could influence the possibility of additional aid in the coming year.

Americans are also still awaiting FDA approval of the first coronavirus vaccines. As the New York Times reports, many employers see the vaccine as the “sunlight in the distance,” but it will likely take months before the vaccine is available to the majority of Americans.

U.S. employers added 638,000 jobs in October. This was a slowdown from the previous month, but higher than economists expected. Despite the growth, the jobs numbers still remain far below pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate fell to 6.9%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 4.5%.

The Numbers

638,000: Employers added 638,000 jobs to the economy in October

6.9%: The unemployment rate fell to 6.9%

4.5%: Wages rose 4.5% over the past year

The Good

The U.S. economy continued to add jobs for the sixth straight month. The 638,000 jobs added surpassed economists’ expectations, especially because the number was offset by the loss of 268,000 government jobs. Most of those losses were temporary census jobs. The gain for private sector employers was 906,000. The biggest gains came in leisure and hospitality, retail and construction, as the Wall Street Journal reports. The drop in the unemployment rate to 6.9% is also good news.

The Bad

In a normal year, the 638,000 jobs would have been considered a great month of growth; however, 2020 is not a typical year. The Washington Post reports that October’s job growth is another slowdown. About 11 million people remain unemployed. The unemployment rate is also unevenly distributed. Black American workers still face an unemployment rate of 10.8%, while the unemployment rate for white workers is only 6%.

The Unknown

The October jobs report has come down at a particularly uncertain time in an already uncertain year. Coronavirus cases are surging across the country and there is still no clarity on further federal aid.

As the New York Times reports, some of the hardest hit industries could face another setback as winter arrives. Outdoor dining has helped bring back restaurant jobs, but as the weather cools and some states add more restrictions on indoor dining, the leisure and hospitality industry faces another difficult period.

U.S. employers added 661,000 jobs in September, a slowdown from the previous month. Despite the growth, the jobs numbers still remain far below pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate fell to 7.9%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 4.7%.

The Numbers

661,000: The U.S. economy added 661,000 jobs in September.

7.9%: The unemployment rate fell to 7.9%.

4.7%: Wages rose 4.7% over the past year.

The Good

September marked the fifth straight month of job growth, and the unemployment rate fell to 7.9% from nearly 15% in April. This brings the unemployment rate below the peak of the last recession. The largest gains came in the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 318,000 jobs, 200,000 of which came from bars and restaurants. MarketWatch also reports that workers are putting in more hours at work, which is good news.

The Bad

The recovery is slowing down. CNBC reports that the 661,000 jobs added to the economy in September fell short of the 800,000 expected in the Dow Jones estimate. This is also the first month of recovery where fewer than 1 million jobs were added. The New York Times reports that if the recovery continues at September’s pace, it will take 17 months to return to pre-pandemic employment levels.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the number of people reporting their layoffs as temporary has decreased, indicating that more layoffs are becoming permanent. This follows several large corporations announcing large numbers of planned layoffs. Though those numbers were not included in the September report, the news indicates that the recovery will continue to slow.

The Unknown

The September report leaves a lot unknown. This will be the last jobs report released before the 2020 U.S. election, where both President Donald Trump and democratic challenger former Vice President Joe Biden have promised to create millions of jobs. It’s not clear what, if any, impact the report will have on the election. The report was also released on the same morning when millions of Americans woke to learn that President Trump has been diagnosed with COVID-19.

Additionally, MarketWatch also reports that economists don’t agree on what will happen next. Some believe that the recovery will continue to slow and slide backward because of the end of federal aid and the start of the cold and flu season. Others believe the recovery will grow stronger as restrictions continue to lift and people find new ways to cope with the impact of the pandemic.

U.S. employers added 1.4 million jobs in August, a slowdown from the previous month. Despite the growth, the jobs numbers still remain far below pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate fell to 8.4%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 4.7%.

The Numbers

1.4 million: The U.S. economy added 1.4 million jobs in August.

8.4%: The unemployment rate fell to 8.4%.

4.7%: Wages rose 4.7% over the past year.

The Good

August marked the fourth straight month of job growth, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4% from nearly 15% in April. This brings the unemployment rate below the peak of the last recession. The New York Times reports that women have made the strongest recovery; however, women took the heaviest hit earlier in the year. The labor participation rate rose to 61.7%, up from last month’s 61.4%, but still below February’s 63.4%.

The Bad

While the continued recovery is good news, it is slowing down. The survey was also taken early in the month of August, before economists say they saw worrying signs in the economy and only shortly after enhanced economic benefits expired. NBC reports that job postings have dropped by 9%, and several large companies have announced additional layoffs or furloughs.

The Unknown

As the recovery slows down, economists are concerned about what is next. The Wall Street Journal reports that the additional waves of layoffs announced by some large employers in August demonstrate that some companies had prepared for only a short-term shut down. Now, as the pandemic continues, leaders need to make additional adjustments.

There is also still uncertainty over a second coronavirus relief bill. More than one month after many elements of the previous bill expired, Congress has yet to agree on how much and what types of aid should be provided.