U.S. employers added 245,000 jobs in November. This was a slowdown from the previous month, and lower than economists expected. Despite the growth, the jobs numbers show a significant slowdown in the recovery. The unemployment rate fell to 6.7%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 4.4%.

The Numbers

245,000: The U.S. economy added 245,000 jobs in November.

6.7%: The unemployment rate fell to 6.7%.

4.4%: Wages rose 4.4% over the past year.

The Good

If we were looking at the numbers for November 2019, the 245,000 jobs added to the economy and the 0.2% drop in the unemployment rate would look like good news. However, in 2020, those numbers tell the opposite story. There are few bright spots in the November jobs report. The Wall Street Journal reports the most significant jobs growth happened in transportation and warehousing, likely related to holiday hiring for ecommerce roles.

The Bad

November’s job growth is by far the weakest since the recovery started this spring. The numbers fell below economist expectations, and as the Washington Post reports, the retail sector shed 35,000 jobs. Bars, restaurants and other food-service businesses shed 17,000. This comes as coronavirus cases have been surging across the U.S., causing some jurisdictions to implement new restrictions, including closing indoor dining. The increase in cases may also be pushing some Americans to complete holiday shopping online, rather than inside retail stores.

Additionally, the decrease in the unemployment rate occurred mostly because 400,000 people dropped out of the workforce, as NPR reports. The economy is still 9.8 million jobs behind pre-pandemic levels.

The Unknown

As 2020 draws to a close, there are still several unanswered questions. Congress is still negotiating a relief bill. Two runoff elections in Georgia will determine control of congress in 2021, which could influence the possibility of additional aid in the coming year.

Americans are also still awaiting FDA approval of the first coronavirus vaccines. As the New York Times reports, many employers see the vaccine as the “sunlight in the distance,” but it will likely take months before the vaccine is available to the majority of Americans.

U.S. employers added 638,000 jobs in October. This was a slowdown from the previous month, but higher than economists expected. Despite the growth, the jobs numbers still remain far below pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate fell to 6.9%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 4.5%.

The Numbers

638,000: Employers added 638,000 jobs to the economy in October

6.9%: The unemployment rate fell to 6.9%

4.5%: Wages rose 4.5% over the past year

The Good

The U.S. economy continued to add jobs for the sixth straight month. The 638,000 jobs added surpassed economists’ expectations, especially because the number was offset by the loss of 268,000 government jobs. Most of those losses were temporary census jobs. The gain for private sector employers was 906,000. The biggest gains came in leisure and hospitality, retail and construction, as the Wall Street Journal reports. The drop in the unemployment rate to 6.9% is also good news.

The Bad

In a normal year, the 638,000 jobs would have been considered a great month of growth; however, 2020 is not a typical year. The Washington Post reports that October’s job growth is another slowdown. About 11 million people remain unemployed. The unemployment rate is also unevenly distributed. Black American workers still face an unemployment rate of 10.8%, while the unemployment rate for white workers is only 6%.

The Unknown

The October jobs report has come down at a particularly uncertain time in an already uncertain year. Coronavirus cases are surging across the country and there is still no clarity on further federal aid.

As the New York Times reports, some of the hardest hit industries could face another setback as winter arrives. Outdoor dining has helped bring back restaurant jobs, but as the weather cools and some states add more restrictions on indoor dining, the leisure and hospitality industry faces another difficult period.

U.S. employers added 661,000 jobs in September, a slowdown from the previous month. Despite the growth, the jobs numbers still remain far below pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate fell to 7.9%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 4.7%.

The Numbers

661,000: The U.S. economy added 661,000 jobs in September.

7.9%: The unemployment rate fell to 7.9%.

4.7%: Wages rose 4.7% over the past year.

The Good

September marked the fifth straight month of job growth, and the unemployment rate fell to 7.9% from nearly 15% in April. This brings the unemployment rate below the peak of the last recession. The largest gains came in the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 318,000 jobs, 200,000 of which came from bars and restaurants. MarketWatch also reports that workers are putting in more hours at work, which is good news.

The Bad

The recovery is slowing down. CNBC reports that the 661,000 jobs added to the economy in September fell short of the 800,000 expected in the Dow Jones estimate. This is also the first month of recovery where fewer than 1 million jobs were added. The New York Times reports that if the recovery continues at September’s pace, it will take 17 months to return to pre-pandemic employment levels.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the number of people reporting their layoffs as temporary has decreased, indicating that more layoffs are becoming permanent. This follows several large corporations announcing large numbers of planned layoffs. Though those numbers were not included in the September report, the news indicates that the recovery will continue to slow.

The Unknown

The September report leaves a lot unknown. This will be the last jobs report released before the 2020 U.S. election, where both President Donald Trump and democratic challenger former Vice President Joe Biden have promised to create millions of jobs. It’s not clear what, if any, impact the report will have on the election. The report was also released on the same morning when millions of Americans woke to learn that President Trump has been diagnosed with COVID-19.

Additionally, MarketWatch also reports that economists don’t agree on what will happen next. Some believe that the recovery will continue to slow and slide backward because of the end of federal aid and the start of the cold and flu season. Others believe the recovery will grow stronger as restrictions continue to lift and people find new ways to cope with the impact of the pandemic.

U.S. employers added 1.4 million jobs in August, a slowdown from the previous month. Despite the growth, the jobs numbers still remain far below pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate fell to 8.4%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 4.7%.

The Numbers

1.4 million: The U.S. economy added 1.4 million jobs in August.

8.4%: The unemployment rate fell to 8.4%.

4.7%: Wages rose 4.7% over the past year.

The Good

August marked the fourth straight month of job growth, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.4% from nearly 15% in April. This brings the unemployment rate below the peak of the last recession. The New York Times reports that women have made the strongest recovery; however, women took the heaviest hit earlier in the year. The labor participation rate rose to 61.7%, up from last month’s 61.4%, but still below February’s 63.4%.

The Bad

While the continued recovery is good news, it is slowing down. The survey was also taken early in the month of August, before economists say they saw worrying signs in the economy and only shortly after enhanced economic benefits expired. NBC reports that job postings have dropped by 9%, and several large companies have announced additional layoffs or furloughs.

The Unknown

As the recovery slows down, economists are concerned about what is next. The Wall Street Journal reports that the additional waves of layoffs announced by some large employers in August demonstrate that some companies had prepared for only a short-term shut down. Now, as the pandemic continues, leaders need to make additional adjustments.

There is also still uncertainty over a second coronavirus relief bill. More than one month after many elements of the previous bill expired, Congress has yet to agree on how much and what types of aid should be provided.

U.S. employers added 1.8 million jobs in July, a slowdown from the previous month. Despite the growth, the jobs numbers still remain far below pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate fell to 10.2%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 4.8%.

The Numbers

1.8 million: The U.S. economy added 1.8 million jobs in July.

10.2%: The unemployment rate fell to 10.2%.

4.8%: Wages rose 4.8% over the past year.

The Good

July marked the third straight month of job growth, and the unemployment rate fell to 10.2% from nearly 15% in April. The biggest private-sector gains were in leisure and hospitality, retail, education and health services and professional services. The Wall Street Journal reports that the number of people who are temporarily laid-off has continued to fall, indicating that more employers are bringing workers back.

The Bad

While the job gains are good news, July’s growth lagged significantly behind the 4.8 million jobs added in June, suggesting the recovery is slowing. Additionally, the gains over the past three months only account for less than half of those lost to the pandemic. Currently, 16.3 million people are still unemployed and looking for work. The Washington Post reports that hiring slowed as coronavirus infections began to rise again, and the economic recovery was weakest in the states with the highest numbers of new coronavirus infections.

The Unknown

Several factors could have a significant impact on the economy. First, the U.S. has had more than 5 million confirmed cases of the virus, with around 50,000 added each day. The New York Times reports that the longer the crisis continues, the greater the impact will be for businesses, especially small businesses.

Also, the additional $600 in unemployment payments expired at the end of July, and congress has yet to agree on an additional relief package. It’s not clear yet how much those payments were boosting the economy and what the impact of losing them will be.

U.S. employers added 4.8 million jobs in June as more states began to ease coronavirus restrictions; however, the data was collected before some states paused or reversed reopening plans due to an increase in COVID-19 cases. The unemployment rate fell to 11.1%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 5%.

The Numbers

4.8 million: Employers added 4.8 million jobs in June.

11.1%: The unemployment rate fell to 11.1%.

5%: Wages rose 5% over the past year.

The Good

The overall numbers for June are good news. According to MarketWatch, analysts had expected a gain of 3.7 million jobs. Most of the gains game in the leisure and hospitality sector, where many restaurant workers returned as more states reduced restrictions. However, the overall numbers only show an incomplete picture.

The Bad

Economists say despite the job growth in June, they still have concerns. According to the New York Times, the data was collected before the latest surge of coronavirus cases that led several states to either delay or walk back reopening plans. Despite that, while the unemployment rate has fallen, it is still higher than any previous recession recorded since WWII. Additionally, the Labor Department has struggled to collect accurate data as many workers do not know if they have a job to return to.

The New York Times also reports that 1.4 million people filed unemployment claims in the last week of June, and economists fear that more jobs could be lost in states like California and Texas, where coronavirus cases are rising.

Finally, many workers are only returning to part-time hours. In June, 9.1 million workers reported working part-time for economic reasons – more than double the number before the pandemic struck.

The Unknown

It is not clear what the impact of the recent surge in coronavirus cases will mean. Some states have stepped back or delayed their reopening plans. The Washington Post reports that some workers are now being laid off or furloughed for the second time in just months.

In a surprising May jobs report, the Labor Department reports U.S. employers added 2.5 million jobs as some states began to ease coronavirus restrictions. Economists had expected further job losses. The unemployment rate fell to 13.3%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 6.7%. This is because the vast majority of the job losses in April were in lower-wage roles.

The Numbers

2.5 million: Employers added 2.5 million jobs in May.

13.3%: The unemployment rate fell to 13.3%.

6.7%: Wages increased 6.7% over the last year.

The Good

The May numbers surprised economists and point to good news. According to MarketWatch, analysts had expected the May report to reflect a third straight month of job losses—a predicted loss of 7.25 million. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected an even worse 8.33 million loss. However, in May, employers added 2.5 million jobs, the highest single month gain since records began in 1948.

Nearly half of the job gains came in leisure and hospitality, a reflection of restaurants reopening as some states began to ease coronavirus restrictions. Additionally, many bars and restaurants received assistance from the government Paycheck Protection Program. This indicates that the U.S. economy may be on the road to a faster than expected recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

According to CNBC, the job gains nearly perfectly mirror the 2.7 million Americans who had reported their layoffs as “temporary.” Economists had been concerned that many of those layoffs would become permanent.

The Bad

While the large increase in employment is good news, the unemployment rate is still higher than any other recession since the Great Depression. Additionally, a broader measure of unemployment that includes jobless workers, those working part time and those who have given up the job search because they are too discouraged was at 21.2%, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The unemployment rate also varies based on gender and race. The rate for Hispanic and Latino workers was 17.6% and it was 16.8% for black Americans. While Asian-Americans face 15% unemployment and white workers are at 12.4%. The unemployment rate is also higher for women.

Job postings have also started to rise but are still far below the pre-pandemic numbers.

The Unknown

The COVID-19 pandemic leaves employers and economists with a lot of unknowns. As the New York Times reports, the $2.8 million stimulus is still helping the economy, but much of that assistance is set to end over the summer, including the enhanced unemployment benefits, which are set to end at the end of July.

It is also unclear how long companies can survive with decreased business, as many consumers choose to stay home and spend less. Additionally, experts worry about a second surge in coronavirus cases, which could hit in the fall.

U.S. employers shed 20.5 million jobs in April as the coronavirus crisis began to show its real impact. The unemployment rate rose to 14.7%, the highest level since the Great Depression. Year-over-year wage growth rose to 7.9%. This is because the vast majority of the job losses were in lower-wage roles. The numbers are even more bleak than they appear. The government’s definition of unemployed typically requires that people be actively looking for work. Additionally, 9 million workers claimed they were out of work for other reasons. If those people are counted, the unemployment rate jumps closer to 20%.

The Numbers

20.5 Million: The U.S. economy shed 20.5 million jobs in April

14.7%: The unemployment rate rose to 14.7%.

7.9%: Wages rose 7.9% over the last year.

What We Know

The New York Times reports that the job losses in April alone are more than double the entire previous recession, where 8.7 million jobs were lost and unemployment peaked at 10% in October 2009. The only comparable period was during the Great Depression. In 1933, unemployment reached around 25%, but the government did not report official monthly statistics until 1948.

The leisure and hospitality industry was hit especially hard, with more than 7.65 million jobs lost. That includes all jobs gained in the industry since 1988. Women and minorities were particularly hard hit, with the unemployment rate for Latino and Hispanic workers jumping to 18.9%, and the rate for women jumping to 16.2%.

The massive increase in hourly wages reflects the fact that the majority of the layoffs were in lower-wage positions, while higher-paid, white-collar workers were more likely to hold on to jobs.

What We Expect

The unemployment rate will likely continue to rise in May, according to CNBC, which predicts a rate around 20% for the month.

The numbers may also already be higher than the report currently reflects. MarketWatch reports that some furloughed workers or others who considered themselves employed, even though they weren’t working, were not counted. If those workers were counted, the rate would be around 20% already.  

Are There Any Bright Spots?

“Bright spot” is relative in this report. However, 78.3% of those who were laid off in April consider the separation temporary, while 11.1% say the layoff was permanent. This means those jobs could return if the COVID-19 crisis improves, but it also means those layoffs could become permanent if the situation worsens.

There may also be a bright spot for companies who have the resources to hire during the crisis. Harvard Business Review reports that this is an unprecedented opportunity to hire high-quality talent. There are a lot of highly skilled workers, from recent graduates to experienced leaders who are looking for work right now. Employers who can hire during this crisis can bring in strong people who otherwise might not have been seeking new opportunities.

U.S. employers shed 701,000 jobs in March as the coronavirus crisis began to impact the country. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Year-over-year wage growth rose to 3.1%. This ends the longest continuous economic expansion in U.S. history.

The numbers are expected to grow even more bleak in the coming months. The March numbers are based on reports from the first two weeks of the month, before many states implemented stay-at-home orders. Therefore, the full impact is not yet known.

The Numbers

701,000: The U.S. economy shed 701,000 jobs in March

4.4%: The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%

3.1%: Average hourly wages rose 3.1% over the last year.

The March Losses

The job losses are most significant in the leisure and hospitality sector, which shed 459,000 jobs as bars and restaurants closed and international and most domestic travel came to a halt. The March jobs report was the biggest monthly drop since the worst months of the Great Recession.

According to the New York Times, even industries that had initially continued running, like manufacturing, are starting to see major impacts as factories close. The job losses are also spread across industries considered essential, including healthcare, as dentists and other non-essential healthcare providers have closed their doors until the pandemic lifts.

There are very few bright spots in the report. Some employers in the transportation and warehousing sector and grocery stores have picked up hiring to meet increased demands.

What’s to Come

The numbers are likely to get far worse in the coming months. As MarketWatch reports, the March numbers don’t reflect the approximately 10 million people who filed for unemployment during the final two weeks of the month. 

The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. could lose 27.9 million jobs and have an unemployment rate as high as 16% by the end of May. The nonpartisan congressional budget office predicts that unemployment will pass 10% in the second quarter of the year. April’s job report could show the largest ever drop in employment.