The U.S. economy gained a disappointing 194,000 jobs in September, missing analyst expectations. The lower numbers were due, in part, to a significant drop in government employment, while private employers grew. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8% as more workers exited the labor force. Year-over-year wage growth was at 4.5%.

The Numbers

194,000: The U.S. economy added 194,000 jobs in September.

4.8%: The unemployment rate fell to 4.8%.

4.5%: Wages rose 4.5% over the past year.

The Good

Though the 194,000 jobs added to the U.S. economy demonstrate slowing job growth, the private sector is faring better than the headline numbers suggest. According to CNBC and the New York Times, the 194,000 figure appears worse because of a 123,000 job decline in government work, including a 180,000 job decline in education. The decline in education jobs can be attributed, in part, to a seasonal adjustment that occurs each year in September and doesn’t necessarily represent recent job losses. In September, private payrolls increased by 317,000, and the estimates for July and August were adjusted up by 169,000 jobs combined.

The Bad

One headline number in September is worse than it initially appears: the falling unemployment rate. The rate fell from August’s 5.2% to 4.8%, but that drop came largely because 183,000 people left the labor force. According to MarketWatch, the labor participation rate of 61.1% is still two full points behind pre-pandemic levels.

The Unknown

The Wall Street Journal reports that economists are still waiting to see what will bring workers back into the labor force. Companies report difficulty filling roles, and wages are rising as much as 10.9% year-over-year in some sectors, suggesting a tight labor market. Economists had predicted more people to reenter the labor force in the fall as students returned to school and enhanced unemployment benefits ran out. So far, it hasn’t been enough.

The U.S. economy gained a disappointing 235,000 jobs in August. Women accounted for only 11.9% of those gains. Economists say the disappointing numbers show the impact of the Delta variant of COVID-19. The unemployment rate fell to 5.2%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 3.1%.

The Numbers

235,000: The U.S. economy added 235,000 jobs in August.

5.2%: The unemployment rate fell to 5.2%.

3.1%: Wages rose 3.1% over the past year.

The Good

The 5.2% unemployment rate is good news, as economists had expected the rate to fall to about that level, according to the New York Times. Additionally, the gain of 235,000 jobs would have been good news in a pre-pandemic year. While economists had predicted a bigger jump in jobs numbers, the economy is still growing despite the growing impact of the Delta variant. The manufacturing, transportation and warehousing and finance sectors saw significant growth.

The Bad

August’s report was largely disappointing, as economists had predicted an increase of 720,000 jobs, according to the Wall Street Journal. The biggest disappointment came in the industries most strongly impacted by the pandemic, leisure and hospitality, which saw no growth in August, and retail, which shed 28,500 jobs. Women were also left behind in August, accounting for only 11.9% of August’s job growth.

The Unknown

The most obvious culprit for August’s disappointing report is the surging Delta variant, which is driving increased cases, hospitalizations and deaths around the country. Some jurisdictions have added new mask mandates or restrictions to slow the spread. MarketWatch also reports a decline in flying, hotel bookings and restaurant reservations.

However, despite rising wages and high volumes of job postings, employers report difficulty filling roles. Economists have expected more women to reenter the labor force in September as children return to school, and expiring federal unemployment benefits could also push some Americans back to work. However, millions of workers near retirement age left the workforce in 2020 and are less likely to return. Economists say both factors are likely impacting August’s report, and they will be important to watch through the end of the year.

The U.S. economy gained 943,000 jobs in July. The numbers are strong, but with new concerns over the Delta variant, economists question how long the strong growth can be sustained. The unemployment rate fell to 5.4%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 4.0%.

The Numbers

943,000: Employers added 943,000 jobs in July.

5.4%: The unemployment rate fell to 5.4%.

4.0%: Wages rose 4.0% over the past year.

The Good

July’s jobs report was the best since August of 2020, and beat economist expectations, the New York Times reported. The strongest gains came in the leisure and hospitality sector, which was hardest hit during the pandemic. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell to 5.4% and employment numbers for both May and June were revised upwards, showing strong hiring throughout the summer.

The Bad

While the report was largely positive, MarketWatch reports that a shortage of workers is still holding back the recovery. While the labor participation rate did tick up in July, many Americans sidelined at the start of the pandemic have yet to rejoin the labor force. Some economists predict that we will see more workers reenter the workforce in the fall when schools reopen. Additionally, as many as 2 million workers retired during the pandemic, with no plans to return to the workforce.

The Unknown

Because the numbers for July were taken during the first few weeks of the month, before cases of the Delta variant surged in parts of the U.S., we don’t know how the variant will impact the economy. The Wall Street Journal reports that in many locations, local governments have reinstated mask mandates, but they have not backed any broad closures. However, the New York Auto Show was canceled and many companies are delaying plans to return to the office over concerns about the Delta variant.

The U.S. economy gained 850,000 jobs in June. The numbers beat economist expectations and suggest the economic recovery is picking up steam. The unemployment rate changed little at 5.9%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 3.6%.

The Numbers

850,000: The U.S. economy gained 850,000 jobs in June.

5.9%: The unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.9%.

3.6%: Wages rose 3.6% over the past year.

The Good

The New York Times reports that June’s job report is another piece of good news about the economic recovery. It is the strongest jobs gain in 10 months and comes after news that consumer confidence surged in June, the stock market closed out the first half of the year with record highs and the congressional budget announced that the U.S. was on track to recover all jobs lost because of the pandemic by the middle of next year.

The most significant gains came in the leisure and hospitality sector, which was the hardest hit by the pandemic. Employers added 343,000 workers to their payrolls in the past month, and those workers saw a 7.1% wage increase compared to this time last year. Wage growth has accelerated in recent months, as employers compete for talent in a market flooded with job openings.

The Bad

The labor-force participation rate still lags 2% behind pre-pandemic levels, fueling the current labor shortage. The Wall Street Journal reports that many older workers who left the labor force in 2020 have decided to retire, rather than return. Other workers may be dealing with childcare responsibilities, continued concerns over the coronavirus or continuing health problems. Economists say the low participation rate is still holding back the recovery.

The Unknown

Economists are debating the impact several factors are having on the growing economy. Some have argued that enhanced employment benefits are keeping some workers out of the labor force. This has led 26 states to cancel the additional $300 weekly benefit in the hope that it would accelerate job growth. However, data does not show any increase in labor force participation in those states at this point.

Additionally, MarketWatch reports that workers are quitting at record levels – often to take a better paying job. Nearly 1 million people left their jobs in June. Wages have risen 3.6% over the past year, but because wages appeared to rise during the pandemic as lower wage workers were more likely to lose their jobs over higher wage workers, there isn’t much clarity about how quickly wages are rising. 

The U.S. economy gained 559,000 jobs in May. The numbers improved over April, but still lagged behind expectations. Employers report they struggle to find job candidates, while some economists say that the economy may need time to get into a consistent rhythm. The unemployment rate fell to 5.8%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 2%.

The Numbers

559,000: The U.S. economy added 559,000 jobs in May.

5.8%: The unemployment rate fell to 5.8%.

2%: Wages grew 2% over the past year.

The Good

After a disappointing jobs report in April, May’s job gains show a notable improvement. The biggest job gains occurred in the leisure and hospitality sector, as rising vaccination numbers and falling infection rates drove an increase in dining. The New York Times reports that job postings on Indeed were 27% higher in May of 2021 than February of 2020, before the pandemic hit. However, economists predict job growth to vary greatly month to month, as the economy normalizes after a long period of uncertainty.

The Bad

The Wall Street Journal reports that the jobs numbers fell short of economist expectations, and the jobs numbers continue to lag behind other economic indicators, like consumer spending. Some employers report a shortage of job applicants, and economists say there could be several factors contributing – including early retirements, childcare responsibilities, health concerns, low pay and enhanced unemployment benefits. The labor participation rate changed little, indicating that many workers who were sidelined during the pandemic have not yet reentered the job market.

The Unknown

Though economists agree that the economy is on track to continue growing, there are a number of factors that could impact that rate of growth. MarketWatch reports that key material shortages are causing issues in industries like manufacturing and construction. Experts predict that the labor shortage should improve in the fall, as children return to school and propel more parents back into the workforce. Lingering fears over the coronavirus are expected to abate as vaccinations continue to rise and cases plummet

The U.S. economy gained 226,000 jobs in April. The numbers fell far below economist expectations, even as vaccinations increase, and COVID-19 cases decrease across the country. The report comes one year after the economy shed 20.5 million jobs in April 2020, at the start of the pandemic. The unemployment rate rose to 6.1%. Year-over-year wage growth was at .3%.

The Numbers

+266,000: Employers added 266,000 jobs to the U.S. economy in April.

6.1%: The unemployment rate rose to 6.1%

.3%: Wages rose just .3% over the past year.

The Good

April’s jobs report was largely disappointing. As the New York Times reports, economists had expected job growth as high as one million. However, there are a few bright points. leisure and hospitality, the sector hit hardest by the pandemic, led job growth with 331,000 new jobs. Additionally, labor force participation increased to 61.7% in April, marking the second straight month of growth, and suggesting that more Americans are reentering the workforce.

The Bad

Despite COVID-19 numbers trending positively, the Wall Street Journal reports that many employers are still cautious about ramping up hiring. Additionally, sectors that grew during the pandemic saw some job losses in April, including temporary work and transportation and warehousing. Manufacturing shed 18,000 jobs due to supply chain issues in the auto industry.

Additionally, year-over-year wage growth fell sharply in April, however these numbers come exactly one year after more than 20 million jobs were lost. At that point, wage growth increased drastically, as higher wage workers were more likely to retain their jobs, while lower wage workers were more likely to experience layoffs. That shift caused the average wage to rise, and the trend will impact wage growth numbers for months to come.

The Unknown

Economists disagree on the cause of April’s disappointing report. According to NBC, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen ascribes the low numbers to the volatility of a recovering economy. Others have argued that enhanced unemployment benefits may be keeping some people at home, while yet another group argues those benefits have been necessary to keeping food on the table for many families. The New York Times reports a more complicated story, particularly in the restaurant industry, as some workers look to change careers for more stable industries, or express health and safety concerns.

The U.S. economy gained 916,000 jobs in March. The numbers beat economist expectations and show the fastest job growth since the summer of 2020. However, economists caution that there are still challenges ahead. The unemployment rate fell to 6.0%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 4.2%.

The Numbers

916,000: The U.S. economy added 916,000 jobs in March.

6%: The unemployment rate fell to 6%.

4.2%: Wages grew 4.2% over the past year.

The Good

The New York Times reports that March’s jobs report is the most optimistic report since the pandemic began. The 916,000 jobs added to the economy beat the expectations of most economists, though as we noted in our February analysis, some economists thought job growth could be as high as one million. Many of the jobs added came in leisure and hospitality, the sector hit hardest by pandemic job losses.

Economists say they expect growth to continue because of the expanded availability of vaccines, with more than 2 million Americans receiving shots each day. The reopening of schools has also allowed more women to reenter the workforce.

The Bad

Despite the good news in March’s report, as the Wall Street Journal reports, there are still 8.4 million fewer jobs than before the pandemic began, and even if growth continues at this rate, it will take the larger part of the year to make up that ground.

The Unknown

MarketWatch reports that economists have a lot of optimism for the coming months, but there are a few factors that could impact the economic recovery. The first is the speed of vaccinations. As more Americans are vaccinated, the economy can recover more quickly. On the other side, many stats are seeing rising numbers of coronavirus cases, which has slowed reopening plans in some areas. If those numbers do not decrease, it could dampen the recovery.

The U.S. economy gained 379,000 jobs in February. The numbers beat economist expectations, suggesting that the recovery is gaining steam. However, economists caution that there are still challenges ahead. The unemployment rate fell to 6.2%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 5.3%.

The Numbers

379,000: The U.S. economy gained 379,000 jobs in February.

6.2%: The unemployment rate fell to 6.2%

5.3%: Wages rose 5.3% over the past year.

The Good

The addition of 379,000 jobs to the economy in February suggests that the recovery is picking up steam, the Wall Street Journal reports. Economists had predicted just 210,000 new jobs.

The majority of the job gains happened in the leisure and hospitality sector, which has been the hardest hit by the pandemic. Experts say decreasing coronavirus cases, increasing vaccinations, and the stimulus passed in December likely all contributed to the uptick as consumers are gaining confidence.

The Bad

While there was plenty of good news in February’s report, there is still a long way to go. The U.S. still has 9.5 million fewer jobs than when the pandemic began. Additionally, some sectors, like construction, shed jobs. Though experts say that is likely temporary and related to winter weather conditions.

While the unemployment rate decreased, there was no improvement in the racial disparity in unemployment. As the AP reports, the unemployment rate for white workers fell from 5.7% to 5.6%, but the unemployment rate for Black workers actually rose from 9.2% in January to 9.9% in February. The unemployment rate for Hispanic workers fell from 8.6% to 8.5%.

The Unknown

Economists say this could be the start of a stretch of strong hiring numbers that lasts through the spring. Bloomberg reports that March could potentially see more than a million new jobs, as long as there is not an increase in coronavirus cases. The New York Times also reports that employers see this as the start of a hiring surge.

However, there are a few factors that could impact these predictions. Economists predict that the $1.9 trillion stimulus will have a positive effect, but rising coronavirus cases or a slowdown in school reopening could impact job growth negatively. Ultimately, workers need to both feel safe returning to the workplace and have the childcare options to do so to continue strong economic growth.