The 28,400 jobs added in April beat some analyst expectations, but the loss of full-time jobs and rise in the unemployment made for a disappointing report. In seasonally adjusted terms, 28,400 new jobs were created, with 34,700 new part-time roles balancing the loss of 6,300 full-time positions. The unemployment rate rose to 5.2%, the highest level in eight months.  

Upside

The Australian economy added 42,300 jobs in May. The labour force participation rate rose to 66.0%, reaching a record high level for the second month in a row. The business confidence index increased to +7, just above the long-term average. Since May 2018, full-time employment increased by 266,300, while part-time employment increased by 93,900.

The largest increase in employment was in New South Wales (up 38,500), followed by Victoria (up 28,600) and Queensland (up 7,800).

Downside

The job growth was almost entirely due to part-time positions. The full-time job increase was just 2,400, much lower than the addition of 39,800 part-time positions. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.2% due to the increase in the participation rate. When the unemployment rate rose in April, it reached its highest level in eight months.

The underemployment rate increased one-tenth of a percentage point to 8.6%. Underemployed workers are defined as part-time workers who want to work more hours than they are and are available to do so as well as full-time workers who worked part-time hours for economic reasons.
 

Even the robust growth in part-time jobs may not be an indicator of continued job increases but a result of the recent national elections:

“CommSec chief economist Craig James said the data covered the federal election period and may account for the skew to part-time workers.

‘Clearly there are temporary jobs created each three years for election-related roles,’ Mr. James said.”

Western Australia had a net job loss of 4,000 and Tasmania had a decrease of 400 positions.

How Long Will the Confidence Last?

While the business confidence index rose in the latest release, business conditions and other key indices were weak clouding the economic outlook:

“’Business confidence saw a post-election spike in May,’ said NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster. Interviewing for the survey started on May 20, two days after a federal election saw the Coalition government returned to power.

‘Expectations of rate cuts may also have helped.’

There had been mounting speculation last month that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would soon cut interest rates, which it duly did at its June 4 policy meeting.

‘While confidence, at least at face value was a positive outcome, business conditions deteriorated further,’ cautioned Oster. ‘Trading conditions and profits are particularly weak.’

The survey’s measure of trading, or sales, slipped 5 points to +3, while profitability fell 4 points to -3. Forward orders also dropped a point to -3.

‘Forward-looking indicators suggest that the bounce in confidence is likely to be short-lived and that conditions are unlikely to turn around any time soon,’ said Oster.”

The June 2019 Labour Market Report released by the Office for National Statistics includes the three months covering February 2019 through April 2019. The unemployment rate held at 3.8%, continuing at a level not seen since 1974. Nominal wage growth was 3.4%. The growth in jobs and wages beat analyst expectations.

Notable Figures

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• The UK employment rate was estimated at 76.1%, higher than a year earlier (75.6%) and the joint-highest on record.
• The UK economic inactivity rate was estimated at 20.8%, lower than a year earlier (21.0%) and close to a record low. This statistic reports the number of people who are economically inactive as a percentage of the total working age population (people aged 16 to 64 years). A person of working age is counted as economically inactive if: they are out of work and have not been actively looking for work in the past 4 weeks.
• The employment level for women was 72.0%, the highest since comparable records began in 1971.

Modest Job Gains Compared to Previous Months

The report showed impressive year-over-year job gains. Estimates for February to April 2019 show 32.75 million people aged 16 years and over working, which is 357,000 more than for a year earlier. This annual increase was due entirely to more people working full-time (up 402,000 on the year to reach 24.15 million). Part-time working showed a fall of 45,000 on the year to reach 8.60 million.
 

The 32,000 job increase in the June report is less than a third of the 99,000 jobs added in the May report. The relatively low number indicates a slow-down in hiring, at least temporarily. It is the lowest number of new jobs since the three months leading to August last year. The reason for the decreased number of new hires may be due to employers having a difficult time hiring new staff in a tight labour market.

Economic uncertainties, primarily driven by Brexit, may be the reason that employers have been on a hiring spree and despite slowing growth rates, the job growth trend may continue as the Financial Times reports:

“In the last three years, the UK labour market has shown resilience, despite a weakness in investment growth.

‘Employment growth has undoubtedly been lifted by businesses preferring to employ rather than commit to investment given current heightened uncertainties,’ said Howard Archer, chief economic adviser at EY ITEM Club, a consultancy. ‘Employment is relatively low cost and easier to reverse if business subsequently stalls,’ he added.”

Healthy Wage Increases

Whatever the cause of low unemployment and continued hiring, the increase in year-over-year nominal wages of 3.4% is a sign that businesses are responding to consistently tightening labour market conditions. In the report released in August 2018 when unemployment was at 4.0%, the year-over-year wage increase was just 2.7%.

While the inflation rate rose to 2.1% in April, the rate of annual wage growth is still well ahead of it. The combination of increased wages and low inflation strengthens the buying power of UK consumers and potentially provides a boost to the overall economy.  This point is underscored by the effect that the rate of increased wages reported impacted the nation’s currency as the pound strengthened in trading as The Express explains:

“This morning’s UK average earnings figures increased in April, exceeding the consensus expectation and rising to 3.4%, providing some uplift to the pound. This will be seen as good news by Sterling investors as rising wages normally translates to increased spending power, which in turn boosts domestic growth.”

Statistics Canada reported that the nation’s unemployment fell to a record low 5.4%. In May, 27,700 jobs were added to the economy, far lower than the 107,000 jobs added in April, but still beating analyst expectations. Weekly annual wage increases were up 2.2%. All of the job gains were in full-time positions and those in the self-employed category, which incorporates freelancers and independent contractors.

The Numbers

27,000: The economy added 27,700 jobs in May.

5.4%: The unemployment rate fell to at 5.4%.

2.2%: Weekly wages increased  2.2% over the last year.

The Good

Statistics Canada reported that the nation’s unemployment fell to 5.4%, a record low. The economy added 27,700 jobs, far ahead of analyst expectations. The job gains in May came from full-time work and from the self-employed category. Over the past year, employment grew by 453,000 or 2.4%, reflecting gains in both full-time (+299,000) and part-time (+154,000) work. This is the biggest year-over-year increase since before the 2008-2009 recession.

Employment in Ontario rose by 21,000 in May, with notable increases among the core-aged population and among women. Three other provinces had net job increases; British Columbia at 17,000, Nova Scotia at 4.500 and New Brunswick at 3,000. There were 20,000 more people working in health care and social assistance in May, bringing year-over-year gains in this industry to 89,000 (+3.7%). Over half of the monthly increase in this sector was in Ontario.

Employment in professional, scientific and technical services was up 17,000, more than offsetting a decline in the previous month. The increase in May was concentrated in Ontario, while smaller increases were also registered in New Brunswick and Saskatchewan. Compared with 12 months earlier, employment in this industry grew by 67,000 (+4.5%). Employment in transportation and warehousing grew by 10,000, driven by increases in Ontario and Alberta. On a year-over-year basis, employment in this sector rose by 60,000 (+5.6%).

The Bad

Despite record low unemployment, the rate of wage growth is still disappointing. In August 2018, annual average weekly wage increases stood at 2.9% while in May it was just 2.2%. Sluggish wage growth impacts the purchasing power of Canadian consumers and can have a negative effect in the overall economy. 

Employment in Newfoundland and Labrador was down 2,700, due to losses in part-time work. The unemployment rate there rose by 0.7 percentage points to 12.4%. The robust job increases in Ontario and British Columbia were not shared by Quebec and other provinces which saw little change in their employment situation.

In May, 19,000 fewer people were working in business, building and other support services, mostly due to declines in Quebec and Alberta. Employment in accommodation and food services was down by 12,400, the fourth decline in the last five months. Employment in this industry has been trending down since May 2018, decreasing by 63,000 (-5.0%) over the year.

The Unknown

The number of self-employed workers rose by 62,000 in May. Compared with 12 months earlier, the number of self-employed rose by 93,000 (+3.3%)  The self-employed category includes independent contractors and freelancers. 

It is unclear why approximately two-thirds of the increase in self-employed workers over the last year took place in May, or whether this rate of growth will continue. Yet if the number of Canadians that opt out of traditional employment situations continues to increase rapidly, it will strain efforts of employers who are attempting to recruit and retain full-time talent at a time of record-low unemployment. The coming months should provide clarity as to whether the rapid increase in self-employed workers in May was an aberration or an indicator of a significant shift in the nature of the Canadian workforce.

The Labor Department released its May jobs report, which shows that U.S. employers added 75,000 jobs in May, well below analyst expectations. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6% last month. Year-over-year wage growth decreased to 3.1%, which is still well ahead of the rate of inflation. U.S. employers have added to payrolls for 104 straight months, extending the longest continuous jobs expansion on record.

The Numbers

75,000: The economy added 75,000 jobs in May.

3.6%: The unemployment remained at 3.6%.

3.1%: Wages increased at a rate of 3.1% over the last year.

The Good

The 75,000 new jobs added to the economy continued the longest job expansion in U.S. history.  The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%, close to a historic low. The year-over-year earnings increase was a solid 3.1%. The annual wage increase one year ago was just 2.7%.

The broadest measure of unemployment—which includes those too discouraged to look for work, plus Americans stuck in part-time jobs but who want to work full-time—fell to 7.1% in May from 7.3% in April. This rate, known as the U-6, has descended since peaking at 8.1% at the start of 2019. While hiring appears to be slowing down, the nation still enjoys an economic environment characterized by low unemployment and rising wages. The most recent report on the number of those applying for unemployment benefits showed that new jobless claims are close to a post-recession low.

The Bad

The addition of just 75,000 jobs in May was coupled with revised employment data for April and March which showed a decrease of 75,000 in the numbers previously reported. The fall off in hiring in May is part of a larger trend which indicates that labor market growth is slowing down since last year. In the first five months of 2019, the economy added an average of 164,000 jobs, down from an average gain of 223,000 for all of 2018. The share of Americans working or looking for a job was unchanged, remaining at 62.8%.

Manufacturers added only 3,000 workers to their payrolls, continuing a streak of weak hiring numbers for this sector. The retail sector, which is challenged by the rise of e-commerce, lost jobs for the fourth month in a row. The retail sector has lost 50,000 jobs since January. The proportion of prime working-age adults, those 25 to 54, who are working rose sharply in 2018. This proportion appears to be leveling off or even decreasing. It was 79.9% in February and 79.7% in May. 

Some analysts point to tensions and uncertainty over trade as a possible cause of disappointing jobs report:

“It definitely looks like we’ve downshifted in the pace of job growth,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist for JPMorgan Chase & Co. “Overall it’s a disheartening report particularly since you may have some trade effects there, but a lot of the trade tensions escalated” since the reference period for the Labor Department’s surveys in the middle of the month.”

The Unknown

With possible tariffs on Mexican goods and continuing trade tension with China, many U.S. businesses are compelled to make hiring decisions without much certainty over future costs, both in the near and long term. In part fueled by trade conditions, there appears to be increasing pessimism over the potential for economic growth for the remainder of the year:

“Over all, the economy is on a fragile footing,” said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at the investment bank Stifel. “We’re still talking about solid growth at the start of the year but that’s in the rearview mirror. The name of the game is uncertainty.”

The 28,400 jobs added in April beat some analyst expectations, but the loss of full-time jobs and rise in the unemployment rate made for a disappointing report.

The Numbers

28,400: The Australian economy added 28,400 jobs in April.

5.2%: The Australian unemployment rate rose to 5.2%.

65.8%: Labour force participation rose to 65.8%.

0: The Business Confident Index fell to 0 from our last update in the latest NAB release.

Upside

The Australian economy added 28,400 jobs in April, beating analyst expectations. The labour force participation rate rose to 65.8%, a record high showing broad confidence in the nation’s job market. Since April 2018, full-time employment increased by 248,100 and part-time employment increased by 74,800.

States with job growth include New South Wales (up 25,100), followed by Western Australia (up 6,400) and Queensland (up 5,400).

Downside

The job growth was entirely due to part-time positions. The 34,700 new part-time roles balanced the loss of 6,300 full-time jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 5.2%, the highest level in eight months.  Victoria had a net job loss of 7,600. The nation’s youth unemployment – people aged between 15 and 24, rose 0.1 points higher to 11.8%.

Another troubling indicator is the increase in the underutilisation rate which went from 13.3% to 13.7% in one month. Underutilisation includes unemployed Australians and those working who want to work more.

The data released in the report, coupled with the news that online job ads have fallen to six-year lows have led some analysts, including RBC’s Richard Thompson, to assert that the unemployment rate is not likely to fall any time soon:

“Given the suite of lead employment/vacancy indicators mostly suggesting further softening in labour market conditions ahead, it is difficult to imagine that unemployment will get back below the 5% mark.”

Fall in Online Job Ads – A Negative Indicator?

Business Insider Australia reports that job advertisements placed on employment platform SEEK fell 8.9% annually in April. Postings fell in all job categories and in all states except the Australian Capital Territory. Ads in media, trades, construction, real estate and architecture fell more than 20% over the year. Job ads in 15 categories fell more than 10%. The article notes, “if the data is reflective of a broader demand for workers, it isn’t looking good for anyone seeking employment in the second half of the year.”

A decrease in online job postings does not necessarily indicate a softening job market. In May 2018, online job ads decreased by 51,000 in the U.S. when the unemployment rate stood at 3.8%. Nearly one year later, in April 2019, it was 3.6%. A decrease in the number of online job postings may reflect, at least in part, that enterprises are successfully utilizing creative strategies to attract talent beyond traditional job boards.